At the end of March, the leaders of the European Union’s Member States stood united in peace and friendship to celebrate the anniversary of the European Union institution. That alone is an achievement that many would have thought unthinkable when the founding Member States agreed on treaties years and years ago. As we mark this anniversary, our thoughts are with those before us whose dream for Europe has become a reality. Now is the time to reflect with pride on our achievements and to remind ourselves of the values that bind us together. Nevertheless, this anniversary must also be the start of a new chapter. There are important challenges ahead of us, for our security, for the well-being of our people, for the role that Europe will need to play in an increasingly multipolar world. A united Europe needs to shape its own destiny and carve out a vision for its own future. This paper is a contribution to this new chapter of the European project. We want to launch a process in which Europe determines its own path. We want to map out the challenges and opportunities ahead of us and present how we can collectively choose to respond. As we decide which way to go, we should remember that Europe has always been at its best when we are united, bold and confident that we can shape our future together. The European Union has changed our lives for the better. We must ensure it keeps doing so for all of those who will follow us. For generations, Europe was always the future. It took off with the vision of two political prisoners locked up by a fascist regime. Their manifesto painted a picture of a place in which allies and adversaries would come together to ensure that the old absurdities of Europe would never return. Years ago, inspired by that dream of a peaceful, shared future, the European Union’s founding members embarked on a unique and ambitious journey of European integration. They agreed to settle their conflicts around a table rather than on battlefields. They replaced the use of armed forces by the force of law. They opened up the path for other countries to join, reuniting Europe and making us stronger. As a result, our troubled past has given way to a peace spanning decades and to an enlarged Union of millions of citizens living in freedom in one of the world’s most prosperous economies. The images of battles in trenches and fields, or of a continent separated, have been replaced by a European Union standing out as a beacon of peace and stability. The sacrifice of previous generations should never be forgotten. Human dignity, freedom and democracy were hard-earned and can never be relinquished. Even if the attachment to peace is not one that all of today’s Europeans can relate to in the same way as their parents or grandparents, these core values continue to bind us together. The European Union is now the place where Europeans can enjoy a unique diversity of culture, ideas and traditions. The European Union is now the place where they have forged life-long bonds with other Europeans and can travel, study and work across national borders without changing currency. The European Union is now the place where the rule of law has replaced the rule of the iron fist. The European Union is now the place where equality is not just spoken about but continues to be fought for. Despite this fact, many Europeans consider the Union as either too distant or too interfering in their day-to-day lives. Others question its added value and ask how Europe improves their standard of living. Moreover, for too many, the European Union fell short of their expectations as it struggled with its worst financial, economic and social crisis in post-war history. Europe’s challenges show no sign of abating. Our economy is recovering from the global financial but this recovery is still not felt evenly enough. Parts of our neighborhood are destabilized, resulting in a large refugee crisis. Terrorist attacks have struck at the heart of our cities. New global powers are emerging as old ones face new realities. Moreover, last year, one of our Member States voted to leave the European Union. The current situation need not necessarily be limiting for Europe’s future. The European Union has often been built on the back of crises and false starts. Europe has always been at a crossroads and has always adapted and evolved. In the past years alone, several treaties have profoundly reformed and transformed a Union that has more than doubled in size. Like generations before us, our response to the task ahead cannot be nostalgic or short-term. It should be built on a common perspective and on the shared conviction that by coming together, each of us will be better off. Now we must once again look forward. This paper maps out the drivers of change in the next decade and presents a range of scenarios for how Europe could evolve. In doing so, it starts a debate that should help focus minds and find new answers to the old question about what future do we want for ourselves, for our children and for our Union. Europe is home to the world’s largest single market and second most-used currency. It is the largest trading power and development and humanitarian aid donor. Thanks in part to the world’s biggest multinational research program, Europe is at the cutting edge of innovation. Its diplomacy holds real weight and helps keep the world safer and more sustainable. Europe is attractive to many of its partners. While no further accession to the European Union is expected in the short term, the prospect itself is a powerful tool to project stability and security along our borders. The European Union works actively with its neighborhood whether it be in the east or in the south. Europe’s role as a positive global force is more important than ever. However, that status belies a simple reality. Europe’s place in the world is shrinking, as other parts of the world grow. Europe’s relative economic power is also forecast to wane. The rapidly rising influence of emerging economies accentuates the need for Europe to speak with one voice and to act with the collective weight of its individual parts. The build-up of troops on our eastern borders, war and terrorism in Asia and Africa, and increasing militarization around the world are vivid illustrations of an increasingly tense global context. The need to reflect on how to deter, respond and protect against threats, ranging from large-scale cyber-attacks to more traditional forms of aggression, has never been so critical. Europe cannot be naïve and has to take care of its own security. Being a soft power is no longer powerful enough when force can prevail over rules. While the world has never been smaller or better connected, the return of isolationism has cast doubts about the future of international trade and multilateralism. Europe’s prosperity and ability to uphold our values on the world stage will continue to depend on its openness and strong links with its partners. Yet, standing up for free and progressive trade and shaping globalization so it benefits all will be a growing challenge. Concerning economy and society, the global financial and economic crisis shook Europe to its core. Thanks to determined action, the economy is now back on a more stable footing with unemployment falling to its lowest level since the great recession hit. However, the recovery is still unevenly distributed across society and regions. Addressing the legacy of the crisis, from the long-term unemployment to high levels of public and private debt in many parts of Europe, remains an urgent priority. The challenge is particularly acute for the younger generation. There is a real risk that the generation of today’s young adults ends up less well off than their parents. Europe cannot afford to lose the most educated age group it has ever had and let generational inequality condemn its future. These developments have fueled doubts about the European Union’s social market economy and its ability to deliver on its promise to leave no one behind and to ensure that every generation is better off than the previous one. Making Europe’s economy more inclusive, competitive, resilient and future-proof will be no less demanding in the years ahead. Europe is aging fast and life expectancy is reaching unprecedented levels. New family structures, a changing population, urbanization and more diverse working lives are affecting the way social cohesion is built. In the space of a generation, the average European worker has gone from having a job for life to having several jobs in a career. There are more women in the work force than ever before, but achieving real gender equality will mean breaking down persisting barriers. At a time when Europe’s working age population is shrinking, it needs to mobilize the full potential of its talents. Europe already has the world’s most advanced systems of welfare States that can provide solutions to societal challenges around the world. Its scientific community is at the vanguard of global research to tackle health challenges. Social protection systems will nevertheless need to be significantly modernized to remain affordable and to keep pace with new demographic and work-life realities. This endeavor is doubly important as Europe comes to grips with a profound digitization of society which is already blurring the lines between workers and self-employed, goods and services, or consumers and producers. Many of today’s jobs did not exist a decade ago. Many more will emerge in the years ahead. It is likely that most children entering primary school today will end up working in new types of jobs that do not yet exist. The challenges of increased use of technology and automation will affect all jobs and industries. Making the most of the new opportunities while mitigating any negative impact will require a massive investment in skills and a major rethinking of education and lifelong learning systems. It will also call for the roll-out of new social rights to accompany the changing world of work. At the same time, Europe is committed to an ambitious decarbonization of its economy and to cutting harmful emissions. Moreover, we will have to continue adapting to growing climate and environmental pressures. Our industry, cities, and households will need to change the way they operate and are powered. We are already a leader in smart cities, in the efficient use of natural resources and in the global fight against climate change. Our firms hold almost one half of the world’s patents for renewable energy technologies. One of our major challenges will be to bring innovative solutions to markets, at home and abroad. Concerning security, Europe is a remarkably free and stable place for its citizens in a world still full of discord and division. However, the chilling effect of recent terrorist attacks has shaken our societies. The increasingly blurred lines between internal and external threats are changing the way people think about personal safety and borders. Paradoxically, these threats come at a time when moving around the world for work and leisure is easier and more common than ever before. The pressures driving migration will also multiply, and flows will come from different parts of the world as the effects of population growth, widespread tensions, and climate change take hold. The refugee crisis is at an unprecedented scale. It has led to a contentious debate about solidarity and responsibility among the Member States and fueled the broader questioning about the future of border management and free management within Europe. For the Europeans who commute to another Member State every day and who travel across Europe for family, tourism, or business reasons every year, borders are a thing of the past. Yet, for the first time since walls were torn down a generation ago, the recent crises have led to temporary controls being reintroduced at certain borders within Europe. The various changes affecting the world and the real sense of insecurity felt by many have given rise to a growing dissatisfaction with mainstream politics and institutions at all levels. It often manifests itself through indifference and mistrust towards the action of public authorities. Moreover, it also creates a vacuum too easily filled by populist and nationalistic rhetoric. Blaming the European institutions for problems while taking credit for success at home, the lack of ownership of joint decisions and the habit of finger-pointing at others have already proved damaging. Europeans are not immune to these stark images of disunity. There is still strong support for the European project, but it is no longer unconditional. Most of the Europeans see the European Union as a place of stability in a troubled world, support the European Union’s founding freedoms, and support the common currency. However, citizens’ trust in the European Union has decreased in line with that issue for national authorities. Closing the gap between promise and delivery is a continuous challenge. This gap is partly because the European Union is not an easy entity to understand as it combines both the European level and Member States. Who does what is not well enough explained and the European Union’s positive role in daily life is not visible if the story is not told locally. Communities are not always aware that their nearby farm, their transport network, or universities are partly funded by the European Union. There is also a mismatch between expectations and the European Union’s capacity to meet them. Take the example of youth unemployment. In spite of the many high-level summits and useful European Union supporting measures, the tools and powers remain in the hands of national, regional, and local authorities. Restoring trust, building consensus, and creating a sense of belonging is harder in an era when information has never been so plentiful, so accessible, yet so difficult to grasp. The nature of the news cycle is quicker and harder to keep up with and respond to than it ever has been before. These trends will only accelerate and continue to change the way democracy works. They create opportunities to facilitate public debate and to engage Europeans. However, Europe and its Member States must move quickly to interact with citizens, be more accountable, and deliver better and faster on what has been collectively agreed. Many of the profound transformations Europe is currently undergoing are inevitable and irreversible. Others are harder to predict and will come unexpectedly. Europe can either be carried by those events, or it can seek to shape them. We must now decide. The scenarios presented in this paper will help steer a debate on the future of Europe. They offer a series of glimpses into the potential state of the Union, depending on the choices we will jointly make. The starting point for each scenario is for the Member States to move forward together as a Union. The scenarios are illustrative in nature to provoke thinking. They are not detailed blueprints or policy prescriptions. Likewise, they deliberately make no mention of legal or institutional processes. Too often, the discussion of Europe’s future has been boiled down to a binary choice between more or less Europe. There is much overlapping between each scenario and they are, therefore, neither mutually exclusive, nor exhaustive. The final outcome will undoubtedly look different from the way the scenarios are presented here.